A single analyst managing capital necessarily depends, and should depend, on other analysts and investment funds to source ideas. That's where the analyst's judgment comes in: discriminating between them and doing your own homework.
In this case, I owe this one to José Ruiz de Alda (@JRDA85 on X). What I've done is replicate the numbers, apply my own standards, and form my own opinion. This isn't meant to be a full thesis, but I believe it can add value for subscribers, and as far as I'm concerned, it has enough value to earn a spot in the portfolio.
A thesis doesn't need to be perfect; it just needs to be asymmetric, and there's asymmetry here worth exploiting. Let's get into it.
Bolloré is a holding company, meaning its only function is to own financial assets (Semapa-style) and unlisted business divisions.
The Excel I’m sharing covers this in detail, but the thesis rests on two pillars, which we’ll now break down:
80% of the proposed Gross Asset Value is listed companies, simply valued at market price. (The price updates automatically in the Excel.)
What the market isn’t seeing is that Bolloré, both directly and through the subsidiaries it controls, in turn holds stakes in its own parent companies. And not a small amount, ~60% of shares outstanding.
Applying a 20% holding discount, both effects together leave an investment with over 80% upside, with further upside potential. There are also reasons to expect catalysts in the short to medium term.
Let's develop both points, but first I invite you to download the model to follow the explanations more easily.