Going paid
Flight to the quiet Pond.
Managing a Family Office is a solitary endeavor. In my case, it is a one-man job—me against my own. I have always viewed Substack as a window to the world and way to “compete” and sharpen my edge by making my research public.
The investment theses I publish are financial dossiers, not the narrative storytelling common on this platform. I have tried to adapt, but storytelling is not my craft. I never know where to stop documenting a thesis because I believe here in Substack there is a tend to oversimplify. I would never invest based on a “compelling story,” no matter how attractive it sounds. I prioritize depth over frequency; therefore, I cannot publish two theses a month, and I will never be an account with 10,000 followers.
So, what am I? I am an obsessive analyst. I am capable of locking myself away for hours to scrutinize every detail of a company’s capital cycle, unit economics, or balance sheet.
How does this work? Typically, institutional investors (primarily Family Offices) hire me to analyze a company when they lack the time, the specific team, or the expertise in a particular sector—such as complex cyclicals or special situations. I conduct the analysis, prepare a rigorous PDF report, and build a dynamic Excel model for the client.
I am turning The Value Pond into exactly that.
What to expect
Moving forward, full investment theses will be reserved for paid subscribers. There are three ways to access:
Free Subscriber: Access to the “5-Minute Drill” (teaser) for every thesis, along with general market commentaries and articles via The Pond Journal.
Paid Subscriber ($500/year- 50$/month):
5-6 Full Institutional-Grade Theses per year: Comprehensive 15+ page financial dossiers.
Live Excel Models: Downloadable and editable models, updated as companies report results.
Continuous Coverage: Periodic updates on published theses.
Full Disclosure: Complete transparency regarding my own positions and movements in the stocks covered.
Substack chat questions
Institutional Subscriber ($1,500/year):
All content included in the Paid tier.
Direct Q&A: Private access to discuss theses or technical model assumptions, webcall or mail.
Priority on pipeline: Priority voting rights on the research pipeline — your interests shape what gets analyzed next.
Research On-Demand: If there is a company you are interested in that I am not currently covering, I can prioritize it in my workflow with a professional discount on bespoke research.
As a token of appreciation to those of you who have followed The Value Pond from the beginning, I want to give free subscribers a voice in what comes next.
Below are three companies from my current watchlist, each with a brief rationale and key metrics. One of them will become the next full thesis — exclusive to paid subscribers.
Capital BM (XLON: CAPD) — Metals & Mining | GBR A natural extension of the drilling sector covered in my Foraco thesis. Capital Limited operates in overlapping geographies and client segments, but with a distinct business model worth analyzing on its own terms. A different angle on the same commodity cycle.
Dunelm Group (XLON: DNLM) — Specialty Retail | GBR A founder-led specialty retailer with a scalable business model, strong insider ownership, and consistent capital returns. In a sector often dismissed as structurally challenged, Dunelm stands out for the right reasons.
Publicis Groupe (XPAR: PUB) — Communication Services | FRA One of the most penalized stocks in the AI narrative — the market fears disruption, but the balance sheet is clean and the business more resilient than the sentiment suggests. A potential case of price disconnected from fundamentals.
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DISCLAIMER: All the information provided in this document is purely informative and does not constitute a buying recommendation (according to Spanish Law Article 63 of Law 24/1988, of July 28, on the Stock Market Regulator, and Article 5.1 of Royal Decree 217/2008, of February 15). DuckPond Value Research is not responsible for the use of this information. Before investing in a real account, it is necessary to have the appropriate training or delegate the task to a duly authorized professional.
Reach us on duckpond@duckpondvr.com