Brilliant framing on drillers as the second derivativ of the boom. That timing lag between exploration appetite and actual mineral extraction is easy to overlook when everyone's chasing the majors. Ive been tracking how juniors financing dried up post-2022 and its wild how quickly sentiment shifted once rates came down. Looking forward to the full thesis, especailly around rig utilization metrics versus price elasticity.
Thanks for your comment!. Totally true, most of value part is done in majors (not saying there is no upside, probably they are gonna put less new offer in next years than demand appetite). On drillers you can see sales variation +20-30% YoY at this point of the cycle. Rig utilization rates are right now lower than 40%. 2021-2022 we saw 55%-60% utilization rates and this should be bigger: New exploration is needed and the majors are balance healthy and more concentrated.
Geopolitical scenario is also different (whether that's good or not) there are incentives to push hard on Canada and US, and also Chile has new boost with political stability.
Brilliant framing on drillers as the second derivativ of the boom. That timing lag between exploration appetite and actual mineral extraction is easy to overlook when everyone's chasing the majors. Ive been tracking how juniors financing dried up post-2022 and its wild how quickly sentiment shifted once rates came down. Looking forward to the full thesis, especailly around rig utilization metrics versus price elasticity.
Thanks for your comment!. Totally true, most of value part is done in majors (not saying there is no upside, probably they are gonna put less new offer in next years than demand appetite). On drillers you can see sales variation +20-30% YoY at this point of the cycle. Rig utilization rates are right now lower than 40%. 2021-2022 we saw 55%-60% utilization rates and this should be bigger: New exploration is needed and the majors are balance healthy and more concentrated.
Geopolitical scenario is also different (whether that's good or not) there are incentives to push hard on Canada and US, and also Chile has new boost with political stability.